Tag Archives: Miscarriage

BREAKING: AI Demands Daily Beast Retract Paul Offit Post on Vaccine-Miscarriage Study

Paul Offit has written a post for The Daily Beast arguing that a CDC study of miscarriage and influenza vaccination should have never been published. He bases his argument on his own misrepresentations of the study’s results. Read Autism Investigated’s below letter to The Daily Beast’s editorial team demanding they retract Offit’s post.

——– Original Message ——–
Subject: Paul Offit’s Article Misrepresents Study Findings, Should be
Retracted
From: <info@autisminvestigated.com>
Date: Sun, September 24, 2017 3:33 pm
To: editorial@thedailybeast.com

Dear Daily Beast,

Your contributor Paul Offit’s latest article “The Pregnancy Vaccine Scare That Should Have Never Been” makes multiple misrepresentations of a recent CDC study on influenza vaccination and miscarriage. Since these misrepresentations form the basis of his central argument that the study should never have been published, Offit’s article is fatally flawed and should be retracted by your publication.

Offit states about a recent study of miscarriage and flu vaccination that the study authors found no overall association with miscarriage and flu vaccination when they had:

“The CDC’s question prior to this study was “Does influenza vaccine cause spontaneous abortions?” The answer to that question was no. It was only after investigators sub-stratified their data to include those who had or hadn’t received a vaccine the previous year that they could find statistical significance.”

This is directly from the study, contradicting Offit’s claim:

“The overall adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 2.0 (95% CI, 1.1–3.6)”

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X17308666

As someone who holds a degree in epidemiology (unlike Offit) and has analyzed the database used in this study (also unlike Offit), I can assure you that that is a significant association. The “95% CI” (confidence interval) excludes the number 1.0. Therefore, the answer to their study question would point in the “yes” direction.

This also demolishes his next point about the study, that the association was based on small numbers:

“After the CDC researchers had finished sub-stratifying their data, the numbers were small”, concluding the results due to “the curse of small numbers gleaned from a large database.” But even before the authors had computed their next association from a smaller sample, the association from their full study sample was already significant. But because Offit misrepresented the association as being insignificant, his point about the study’s findings being based solely on small numbers is also wrong.

His very first point was also wrong, too:

“Researchers had studied two influenza-vaccine seasons: 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. The problem of first-trimester spontaneous abortions occurred during the first season but not the second.”

The study itself makes clear this happened in both seasons: “This effect modification was observed in each season”

Because the majority of Offit’s points are based on his own misrepresentations – including all those that discussed the study findings directly – simple corrections are too mild. The entire post should be retracted by The Daily Beast, especially since the purpose of the post was to make the case for why the study should have never been published. In reality, The Daily Beast should have never posted this fatally flawed article by Paul Offit and should now retract it.

Sincerely,

Jake Crosby, MPH

Dr. David Gorski Falsely Denies Vaccine-Miscarriage Finding

Crooked cancer doc David Gorski‘s verbose posts can be completely demolished if you can find and refute the one sentence in his posts that attempts to make a real point. That is exactly what was done when Autism Investigated refuted his denying the significance of an association between miscarriage and flu vaccination that was published in a recent study. He falsely described the finding on his blog thusly:

an aOR [adjusted odds ratio] of 2.0 for the 1-28 day window of exposure to the influenza vaccine before miscarriage that was not statistically significant

However, the study itself directly contradicts Gorski’s assertion of insignificance. So AI’s editor took to Twitter to call him out.

And Gorski was also called out on his own blog. Gorski replied with an excuse:

When one writes blog posts in one’s spare time late at night, such things occasionally happen; one occasionally makes mistakes.

Yet none of his supporters caught the error either, including both a doctoral epidemiology student at Johns Hopkins and a Ph.D. epidemiologist. Despite correcting the error in one sentence, Gorski still has yet to correct it in another sentence in that same blog post:

Basically, the study found zero (that’s right: zero, nada, zilch) association between miscarriage and flu vaccination—with one exception: if the woman had consecutively received a flu vaccine containing the 2009 H1N1 virus. 

Never mind the overall adjusted odds ratio that Gorski now acknowledges as being significant. From there, Gorski’s case against the study falls apart: it was not a fishing expedition for statistical association. It found an association per study protocol and attempted to assess that association further.

Further study yielded an association in a subgroup of women who would already have a body burden of mercury from a prior vaccine, making them more susceptible than other women. But Gorski says this is evidence against the association being real!

For years, Gorski has openly supported government officials crookedly hiding scientific results and barring more research of mercury exposure from vaccines. He also claimed he would acknowledge that mercury in vaccines may cause autism if presented with certain evidence, only to refuse when confronted with that evidence years later.

Why Gorski lies about vaccination risks to children may be explained by his own ties to the pharmaceutical industry. But another factor could be much more personal – possible bitterness over his lack of children despite being in a heterosexual marriage. Perhaps the reason for this is biological and not by choice. If so, what better way for him to get back at society for his or his wife’s infertility than to spread lies that can lead to more miscarriages and brain-damaged children?